Food Security Summary:

Heavy rains in late July and early August caused severe flooding in southern Chad, increasing already moderate levels of food insecurity in Moyen Chari region. The floods affected 30,000 people, 10,000 of whom lost their homes and possessions. Given that access to food products on the market is difficult because of the rains, and that food reserves from cereal crops and cash crops have already largely been exhausted, emergency food and non-food assistance is needed until the peak of the next harvest in October, and into the off-season in some areas.

Despite three consecutive surplus cereal harvests, the rise in cereal prices on international markets has had an impact on domestic prices, with steady increases following the last harvest (December 2007).

The most likely food security scenario from October to December 2008 could be characterized by average to below average cereal harvests compared to the last three years. This could translate into relatively high prices, even in the immediate post-harvest period, with a tendency towards above average prices in the following months. In the conflict-prone zones of the East (Dar Sila and Dar Tama), the structurally deficit regions (Kanem and Batha West) and Tibesti, which depends almost exclusive on overseas markets (in Libya and Niger) for its food needs, a proportion of households (about 700,000 people) will face moderate levels of food insecurity. Elsewhere, most households will be food secure following the harvests.

In the worst case scenario, cereal harvests will be poor do to a bad distribution of the rains and localized flooding. The anticipation of a weak cereal supply to markets in the post-harvest period could lead to a surge in prices before the harvest, at the peak of the hunger period. A political lack of consensus between rebels and the Chadian government or between the latter and the government of Sudan could trigger new confrontations in the east. This would lead to increased civil insecurity and new displacements of people and disrupt commercial exchanges and the provisioning of emergency humanitarian services for refugees and displaced persons. This scenario could result in high to extreme levels of food insecurity for a proportion of households (about 700,000 people) in affected areas, including Tibesti, structurally deficit areas (Western Kanem and Batha), and conflict-prone areas (Dar Sila and Dar Tama).

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